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tv   Squawk Box  CNBC  January 8, 2018 6:00am-9:00am EST

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2018 2018 got to remember that with a check if i ever write one. "squawk box" starts right now. live from new york where business never sleeps, this is "squawk box. good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen andrew is off this week. our guest host for the hour is guy adami. >> oh, yeah. >> big money trader. >> oh, yeah. great to see you. >> wait a second where is he? like golden globes, andrew >> no, no, no, he's on vacation with his family. >> mozeltoff my people say happy belated birthday, joe. 51, god bless you. >> the number is what it is. but the alternatives, i always say that whenever i start thinking, wow,
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and i've always said this. it's nice to have kids because you need to live to watch them grow up, right >> i guess >> time is passing, they can't grow up. >> did you have a nice day >> we did. i -- i don't know, i thought i had a free rain ein to imbibe. you can't tell what you're doing until it's too late. so i have a picture -- we had a cake when we got home. i was laying on the couch and they took a picture of me because i wouldn't sit up to eat the cake >> you need those glasses that we had >> stounounds like a good birth >> we went in the big city >> it was fun. >> happy belated birthday.
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>> thank you. folks, let's check out the u.s. equity futures. the second trading week of the year green arrows dow was up by 577 points gain of 2.3% nasdaq up by even more 3.4% just in the first four trading days looks like there are green arrows across the board. dow futures up comes after big gains up tonight in asia. nikkei up by .9. hang seng up by a quarter of a percent. shanghai up. early trading in europe this morning you will see that the markets are up the only laggard is the ftse finally, take a look at crude oil prices which were up by a dollar over the course of the week last week this morning crude oil up again pushing towards $62 a barrel at 61.79. in corporate news jana
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partners and calstrs -- >> i'm seeing the picture of the cake. >> we can't really show that >> but anyway, take action to curb the growing smart phones. this is something -- i'm not kidding, i worry about. >> i do, too. >> i still think we'll be okay i use my iphone a lot. >> children's brains are wired differently than ours and they are much more quick to build into patterns and find addiction. >> i wonder. jana urging apple to take action to curb -- what does that mean, to curb the growing addiction. how is apple supposed to do that >> they want them to put in parental controls that you can take more control more easily about how much time your kids can be spending on these even if they have a phone. they get phones because they want to know where they are. don't want them to have the phone all night in bed with them contacting who knows what and when they want more parental
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controls. >> when you were growing up in cincinnati, ohio, is that correct? >> yeah, everybody knows that. >> that's why i bring it up. did your parents know where you were every waking hour you somehow made it here just had a birthday over the weekend, went to the city. >> i'm successful because i'm alive is what you're saying? >> no, that's not what i'm saying you made it without your parents knowing where you were. >> short of putting a chip in their arm, it is -- it is -- >> that's the way you track them you can see on gps. >> you could get by. it's not just that they're stalking children, but it's just the constant stimulation through cyber -- >> the need to have the phone with you children's brains are different. they're not developed yet. >> the two investors collectively own $2 billion worth of apple shares. they sent a letter calling for
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the company to develop, as becky said, new tools to help parents control and limit the use. they also studied, which we haven't done, the impact of overuse on mental health and first it was facebook. who knows -- >> by the way, these are investors who own a stake in it who are saying if we don't do this it's going to impact the stock's value over time. they want to make sure that they are heading off anything that could turn around and bite the company down the road. >> combination of iphone, instagram, facebook and all of that stuff >> i think the pressure that puts on teens. >> do you remember wall street >> do i remember >> remember that phone that was like a cool phone it actually worked didn't have a wire. >> worked at the beach. >> that was all we knew. >> then it came the flip phone.
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>> i'll make a prediction. they're hip. how cool would it be if you were walking in that restaurant saturday night and pulled out your flip phone -- >> the table was pretty good celgene has agreed to buy impact biomedicine for up to $7 billion. the deal is structured in three parts. 1.1 billion up front and additional payments will be based on whether the company's impact, cancer drug gets fda approval and novo nordisk said ablynx has rejected its offer they say this bid is 14% higher. a frozen pipe caused a problem at jfk then yesterday a water main burst spilling three inches of water into the arrival area of terminal four.
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that services delta and international airline. a frozen pipe wasn't protected from the cold. passengers were stranded and luggage piled up i don't know if you saw any of it, it was where people were bumping into -- for like seven, eight hours waiting to get off the plane. >> yeah. >> it was quite a scene. i was very glad i wasn't traveling. >> was this all from the global warming bomb or whatever it was? was it all from that >> i think so. >> yeah. nkts it wasn't called that it was caused by that but it was not really called -- what was it, a polar bomb bomb mo bomogenesis. >> quale knows. >> bomogenesis like a global warming bomb. >> you were impressed that it
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was an actual meteorological term >> i was when the pressure drops 24 millibars in 24 hours or something. >> cold weather affects it. >> pretty hideous, went from a lot of snow to where you get it so you can drive, which means it melts a little, then it goes to zero degrees the numbers were frightening i have dogs and stuff. so i'm out early in the morning out in our yard. it was like, i don't like this. >> exposed skin is a problem. >> right right. >> there was 100 million people in the united states affected by this president trump travels to nashville to speak to the american farm bureau federation. this is after spending the weekend at camp david. kayla tausche joins us with more good morning, kayla. >> reporter: good morning. camp david talks were called productive aids say gary cohen talked infrastructure, speaker ryan talked entitlement reform.
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those programs will likely be less ambitious than previously discuss discussed. outside camp david, steve bannon tweeted yesterday apologized for not commenting sooner. don jr. is a patriot and a goodman and that he stands by the president and his work to make america great again wolff on the defensive for the various factual errors for his reporting of what we know to be some true events here's wolff on "meet the press." >> i think we mixed up mike berman and mark erman. for that i apologize but the book speaks for itself read the book. see if you -- if you don't feel like you are with me on the couch in the white house and see if you don't feel alarmed, as you say.
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>> reporter: today the president will attend the college football national championships in atlanta after a stop in nashville to address the farm bureau that's his first major speech since tax reform passed. grace darling says he will taut tax reform he'll taut deregulation, efforts to combat the opioid regulation and a policy report commissioned in an april executive order. that's expected to be released today. asked whether he will stay in nafta, a white house official tells me trump is committed to a fair deal regardless of what strategy he employs to get there. we'll see what details we get around 4:00 p.m. eastern time today. joe. >> i forgot that it is tonight, alabama/georgia it's kind of late for us, kayla, isn't it are we not psyched about georgia? >> reporter: i'm psyched about georgia. i'm a huge georgia bull dogs
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fan. i went to unc. you can take a nap in the afternoon, joe, and stay up for it if it's anything like last week's game where georgia won in doubling overtime, you're going to want to stay up for it. >> who told you about my afternoons. >> reporter: i think you told me about your afternoons. >> they said he had been out late just take a nap. she said, i don't sleep during the day. i was like -- >> slacker. >> i do at times i do i can do it -- kayla, i can do it -- >> reporter: it's a skill. >> sometimes i don't even know whether -- i don't even remember whether i'm napping or awake we're off at 9, right? >> i can't throw stones. i've done the same thing. >> during the day? >> yeah. the 3:00 a.m. thing every morning. >> if you've got to be out at night. >> yeah. >> look. kayla, when are those awards coming out wednesday? they got pushed back, right? golden -- they're not golden globes they're something -- >> the dishonest and corrupt
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media awards as the president is calling them supposed to be today at 5:00 but because of the president's now busy schedule with his speech and attending the national championship game which came up fairly last minute, he's now moved those to wednesday he announced in a tweet the idea was that it was spoetsed to coincide with the release of "fire and fury. >> okay. got it we'll have that to look forward to and bank earnings, kayla so that's coming up later this week, too. big week just in terms of excitement thank you. >> sure. let's get to our monday morning strategy session joining us is steve wood he is russell investment's chief market strategist from north america. scott brown is raymond james chief economist. also our guest host for the hour, guy adami. welcome to everybody guy, let's start with you. you haven't weighed in on what you think about the markets so far. it has been a pretty meteoric
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rise >> like the market, like the president. don't like the market, don't like the president, you can't fight what's going on here look what's going on in asia the market has been unbelievable you stay with what's working the industrial names are out then you look at aerospace defense and the banks on top of it, like it or not, we're in an environment where stocks will grow higher. 80% of the week last week we're up 2.5, 3% despite your political wranglings and whereby your view is this week. >> we'll talk earnings they think they will be very strong and changes to the tax law could be ratcheted up, too. >> we would agree. i think the composition of the earnings is becoming more interesting.
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i'll jump off of what you said the non-u.s. global growth story is kicking in. this is an opportunity that we've talked about for a u.s. dollar investors to diversify globally a lot of strength will broaden up it's a rebalance away from what's been doing well earnings should do well. we think that the tax plan will contribute to that the question on the table for us is does the fed take that away so what the tax plan might give us and i think the fed will look at that. i think it's a mixed picture but a good opportunity to rebalance, do your blocking and tackling. do your homework and look at a global valuation story which might be a little bit more attractive than the u.s. valuation story. >> scott, why don't you weigh in on the fed we have kevin has set on later this morning he's made some comments that he doesn't think the fed necessarily will have to raise rates more rapidly than the
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market is already expecting, two to three times for the coming year what are your expectations in terms of growth expectations what do you think the if he had will do? >> this is a smoothe transition at the helm. fed. a lot more clouded outlook as you look at the last season, they have rotated off the committee. we're looking at a little bit more hawkish fed in 2018 and really a lot more uncertainty, i think, in fed policy just as the risks of a monetary policy error are starting to increase in terms of gdp growth, you know, you look at the late additions to the tax bill, there were things that weren't in either the house or senate bill that are going to boost the economy a little bit in the near term. >> such as what? >> i don't think the bill does much over the next ten years -- well, the cuts in the top income
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tax rates, for example >> right. >> that will add a little bit to spending in the near term, but not a whole lot. the bigger constrained, the major story in the economy is we're looking at demographic constraints. we're looking at a much lower labor growth than we grew up with women were coming into the work force in greater percentages growing around 2% a year it's slowing down to.5,.6% and then immigration there may be more slack in the economy and i think that's the big question for the fed, but ultimately we're going to see job growth slowing down, not because the economy is weak, simply because there aren't enough people. >> we're already talking about unemployment at 4%. >> yeah. we're talking about it falling even further in the near term. it can't fall forever.
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the new bogey is 2% rather than 3, 3.5% that we remember that's not necessarily bad news for the stock market you can still grow earnings in that kind of environment we expect rage pressures to create more incentive for productivity enhancing changes in the economy a lot of structural things going on. >> everybody's pessimistic but you missed two of them already at 3 the journal has a big piece. we're going to talk to hassett about it long-term flowing theme despite spurt. even robert gordon, who's so negative, the northern guy says -- >> i do know if i can say a name i need to buy a vowel. he says it's too pessimistic about growth not because of what's happening in washington but because you're
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underestimating what's happening. ai, all of this stuff, we don't know what you're talking about here technology is going to boost it and we're going to stay at 3% or above. all of you guys, this 2%, that's all we can do forever, that's very depressing. it wasn't the way it's been for the past 60 years. we weren't constantly having kids every minute in the last 60 years. >> constantly it was a lot stronger. >> you're right. >> technology could save us here technology -- for the first next five years wow, here's what i -- >> well, look. over the last year job growth was the same in 2017 as 2016 that was associated with a
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further drop in the unemployment rate clearly you can't keep the unemployment rate dropping forever. >> starts going up unless people start working more than part-time jobs, unless they get better jobs. >> part-time jobs are down part-time jobs are down. >> people are working two or three part-time jobs. >> what does it mean for the market. >> doesn't make sense. >> i think in the near term we will getter to 3% than 2%. as you go from 2018 to 2019 i think the odds of recession increase by the back end of 2019 just if you look at the yield curve, there is rich information there. we're dancing around 6 0 bips, two to ten >> that means you're less than half a percentage point for ten years. >> how can our yield curve do anything as long as we're tethered to that >> exactly right the belly of the curve unstable. >> i don't know if it's good
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if you would say a recession is coming, i don't know if that would make sense. >> equity market versus bond market i'm going with a bond market. >> coming up, on uber. have you seen the news ad. i think it's for an airline. guy gets in an uber car and he starts talking it's actually a get away car bank robbers get in. then they bring bags of cash you haven't seen that? >> yeah. >> he's in an uber car why uber can get your phone's location but 911 emergency dispatchers can't. figures, right that story is next nobody's putting their money into equities.
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they're not investing in commodities or fixed income. what people are really putting their money into is what they hope to get out of life. but helping them get there requires a real refusal to settle for average. because when you approach investing with a tireless desire to beat the status quo, something wonderful can happen. those people might just get what they wanted out of life. or maybe even more. they always refer to me as master sergeant. they really appreciate the military family, and it really shows. we've got auto insurance, homeowners insurance. had an accident with a vehicle, i actually called usaa before we called the police. usaa was there hands-on very quick very prompt. i feel like we're being handled as people that actually have a genuine need. we're the webber family and we are usaa members for life.
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welcome back did you know that uber could track your phone but 911 can't
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that details the lagging technology between technology giants and emergency systems out there. they're still kind of try angulating where you are between cell phone towers. when you're inside a signal can't track as easily. there are software platforms that allow uber and others to do these things it's been a huge source of a problem for 911. 80% of emergency calls come in from cell phones and they don't know exactly where you are. >> we just talked about pipes freezing this system doesn't work the technology we have, you didn't think these things would exist in 2018. crazy. >> there's something you need to alert the nearby cell towers >> yeah. i didn't entirely understand. >> it will be fixed. >> it should be. >> it's possible there's money involved. >> you by a good point infrastructure spending. >> i don't know. the companies. >> it will force the companies
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>> yeah. but you read the actual situation, like the one i read was just horrific. the baby-sitter, infant that fell out of the window and she didn't know where -- she wasn't sure of her address so the 911 operator is like, where are you? she's crying looking for mail or looking out in the front to find the address on the house. >> slowing things down. >> the person is injured and it's taking time you can imagine if there's someone in your house. >> they say even in a minute's time with an additional minute of extra notice or less time taken up they can save lots and lots of lives. >> right maybe joe and i should invest in this technology. >> i think it will happen whether we do or not. >> because of the article? >> yeah. >> pay attention to it. >> guy should be reading this. i think you did this, didn't you? >> what? >> this weekend's deep freeze in new york city didn't stop commuters from participating in the 17th annual no pants subway
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ride in fact, the article i saw started with shrinkage they went immediately to shrinkage. according to improv, the group that stages the event, riders met at several stops across the city all of the riders eventually met up at union square those that chose to take the subway in their scivvies were freezing temperatures in new york city dropping into the teens and the only two requirements, guy, as you probably know -- >> right. >> -- for participating, you're willing to take your pants off on the subway. you're not allowed to laugh. you do it and take the ride. >> i'm glad your old buddy -- >> normal day for me. >> i'm glad your old buddy dylan participated commando. >> you have to have -- you have to have -- >> pants underneath. >> underwear. >> that should be the third requirement. >> there must be undergarments.
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>> i would hope. >> that's the problem. that's against the law in some places >> right >> in your house, it's a normal weekend. >> no clothes. >> all i'm thinking about is that theme from a christmas story where the kid licks the poll and his tongue sticks to it you better have underwear on. >> wow >> that's a quantum leap. >> i have no idea. all right. when we come back this morning, earnings season kicks off at the end of the week. we will tell you what to expect when the big banks report. at rhtft ts.
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welcome back you're watching "squawk box" live from the nasdaq market site in times square. good morning, everybody. let's take a look at the u.s. equity futures this morning. things are in the green already. looks like right now the dow futures are indicated up by about 40 points after a big week last week across all the major averages s&p futures are still up but just barely. up by .2 of a percent. nasdaq up by 4.5 some stocks to watch this morning. nvidia is partnering with uber and vw on self driving cars. it will be using the chips on the ai cars. vw will use the company's drive 9 platform that includes things like facial recognition and you can see nvidia up 2 percent. herb she and the ferriero group submitting bids for nestle's
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candy business brands like butterfinger and baby ruth are worth $2 billion 49 49er rare ra makes knnutella. revenue beat estimates analysts are citing higher spending as the south korean company tries to expand market share in the home appliance business. >> a new survey found the people who own voice assistants like amazon echo or google home use their smart phones less. 2/3 with voice assistants said they spent less time on their phones since they bought these new devices. this could spell trouble for smartphone makers who lag lined. >> do you think amazon would ever launch a phone? >> doesn't everyone have one >> i don't know. >> i think it would be a mistake. they're getting into everything
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else disrupt, disrupt, disrupt. no, no phone. >> let's talk about what happened last night in hollywood. the golden globes getting a lot of attention this morning. three billboards cleaning up at the goalen globes including the award for the best drama also, it was the women of hollywood that really took the spotlight last night bringing the me too movement center stage. the normally colorful red carpet was transformed into a sea of black gowns in a show of solidarity and support for people who have reported abuse people are mentioning this in their speeches it was the subject of the monolog, the opening monolog, too. the national average for the retail price of regular grade gasoline has increased by about 3 cents over the past three weeks. it reverses a three cent decline. the average price is 2.54 a gallon. at the box office, jumanji welcome to the jungle brought in
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$36 million. the stars include kevin hart and dwayne the rock johnson. the horror film insidious the last key debuted in second place earning more than $29 million. this is the fourth film in the insidious franchise. "star wars the last jedi" falls to third place with $24 million. the four week take topping half a billion. when we come back this morning, a nickelodeon star turned entrepreneur. chase norman will join us talking about creating a business then kevin hasset will join us to talk about job growth and the ceo of hopper joining us stay tuned you are watching "squawk box" right here on cnbc breadstick? a matchstick! a lamppost! coin slot!
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but helping them get there requires a real refusal to settle for average. because when you approach investing with a tireless desire to beat the status quo, something wonderful can happen. those people might just get what they wanted out of life. or maybe even more.
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welcome back to "squawk box", everybody. right now it's time for the executive edge a crypto currency that was created as a parody and named after an internet meme has a market value of more than $2
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billion. you can't make this up a doge was popularized there are several ways you can get these coins. buy them on exchanges. you can buy them or get tipped for your post or comments online according to data from coin market cap, doge coin rose more than 60% just since friday. late friday venezuela's leader ordered money called the petro. michelle is here to explain how it will work and how we can buy today, hopefully >> i'm not sure actually if it's going to work at all. >> no. the story i started out with, how is this going to work? >> crypto currency and venezuela. >> block chain experts and cryptocurrencies are extremely skeptical if this will work in
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venezuela. making the announcement of the 100 million new currency units will be backed by field number 1 in the oronoco real gone they're skeptical there's a lack of rule of law in venezuela. you've got to believe you can actually redeem it for a barrel of oil in a country like venezuela, how do you know they're going to deliver? if they don't, what's your legal resource ertz perts are actually skeptical. will it be based on aethereum or something else they claim they'll make an announcement on january 14th there's no doubt that we'll have asset backed crypto currencies they're doubtful of this if you think cnbc covers crypto currencies a lot we have nothing on venezuelan
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television they have ministers coming on touting the benefits of it let's see if it works. >> what is the recent history of the european -- or of the venezuelan currency been in the last five years? >> horrendous. they have massive hyper inflation. >> has it gone from 100 dollars to a million dollars nk . >> something like that. >> a lot of venezuelans are minding bitcoin like crazy electricity is free which is a main input cost. >> right. >> you are highly specialized. >> you don't know offhand what the last five years have been? >> 3,000,0%, 4,000%. >> it's on tv more than ours.
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>> well, if -- so there's two things there's bitcoin, which is international. if you're an individual venezuelan, can you understand the incentives to do it completely makes so much sense. if the government is trying to monetize their assets, that also makes sense. it's just how are they actually going to achieve takeup on a wide scale if you have doubts about who you're doing business with. >> just looking at some of the stuff, our last year in march they announced a new -- the government announced new exchange rate of 710 for u.s. dollars. 710 bulivar. on the free market and then there's a black market which nobody trusts. >> you go to the atm, i need 150,000. >> you need a bigger physical
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wallet. >> inflation is horrendous. >> i liked it because there were cute little monkeys on the currency >> inzaire, they had gorillas. they were worthless. you could hang them up. >> buying parts. >> thank you. >> you're welcome. see you later. >> you know it's earnings season again? can you believe this >> every three months or something. >> i know. as usual, the banks kick it off, jpmorgan and wells fargo are going to kick off earnings season this friday with a sneak peek let's bring inner regard casady. can you point to three macro things that will be interesting or are they something to watch with all the banks, gerrard, whether it's the yield curve, interest, loan growth? what are you watching most closely? >> sure, joe i think the number one macro issue that people will focus in
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on is going to be the impact of the tax law change many of our largest banks have deferred tax assets or deferred tax liabilities so i think investors are going to take a look at what they're going to do with those writedowns or writeups or a gain in the case of a deferred tax liability. just also, everybody's going to be very focused on what the tax incomes will be from the banks in terms of the quarter for the capital market players, i think the focus is going to be on markets trading. fik trading has been weak all year traditional, those are the big mac crow factors the yield curve is going to be talked about as well >> are these deferred liabilities worth less now >> what's going to happen now is the folks with the deferret tax assets, you're right citi has come out and say they
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think they are $45 billion deferred tax liability could be written down by $20 billion. on the other hand, banks that have deferred tax liabilities like pnc financial should expect that on friday >> it's really dependent on who you're talking about it's not monolithic? >> that's correct. what's going to be interesting, the banks with the big deferred tax liabilities, wells fargo being the largest, what i would suggest is they can use the one time gain to offset maybe expenses that could be incurred to make the banks more efficient. we'll be watching that carefully as well. >> as far as trading goes, were there -- equity trading must be great? who are the big winners?
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who didn't do so well? >> the weakest area as many of the banks talked about in december equity trading should be better. nothing to write home about. where the focus could come in is in the ecm number. as you know with the ipo market in 2017, it was quite a bit stronger than 2016 i think there will be some focus on there also the guidance and mna is expected to pick up quite materially in 2016. >> we have a "fast money" trader here, halftime report. >> no, 5:00 show, joe. we're coming up on our 11 year anniversary. do not feign ignorance did you ask gerrard a question >> what have the ""fast money"" or "halftime" traders been saying >> you can weigh in on this. my view is i don't think the banks should trade the
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valuations they were in 2008 when they were trading two and a half to three times the book i think they should come in somewhere around 1.8 for example, jpmorgan, which book values about $67. 1.8 metric gets you at $120 stock. does that make sense in terms of valuation? >> guy, it does. i think you're spot on we're in your camp we don't expect those -- actually, i go back and look at the '97 and '98 valuations because we anticipate the banking industry will have big banks and they're trading 3 and a half times earnings and 3 and a half times book. i think the banks will trade 2 and a half times book which is a tad higher than what you were suggesting on jpmorgan. >> two times not 1.8. >> why go 1.8 when you can go 2.
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>> why go 2.5. keep going i'll play the game with you. >> gerrard, thank you. we may need to talk to you again when the numbers come out. >> i look forward to it. thank you. >> thank you. when we return, jace norman is a 17-year-old television star turned entrepreneur. he will talk about making the jump from nickelodeon to the business world. right now as we head to break, take a quick check at what's happening on the european margins. the ftse is a little bit lower now it's more on the positive side of things the cac is up. "squawk box" is coming right back stay with me, mr. parker. when a critical patient is far from the hospital, the hospital must come to the patient. stay with me, mr. parker. the at&t network is helping first responders
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. >> he is the star of "henry danger." he also overcame a learning disability and tried to help connect social media stars joining us is henry danger himself. the founder of the new company called creator edge media. >> thanks for having me, guys. >> we knew through nickelodeon our kids loved you >> yeah. >> you have a next act in line with what you are doing with this new agency. >> yeah, yeah, yeah. i mean, look, it's like people
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try to kind of put you in these boxes of, like, you're an actor, you're a this, but, like, at the end of the day it's still have my passions, and i'm a human, and i have other passions. i decided branch out into entrepreneursh entrepreneurship i decided to execute this idea that was brewing >> what created the idea where did you see a need, and how do you think -- >> well, mainly it came out of a lot of my friends. i have a lot of friends who are influencers, and they have millions of followers, and they have all these eyeballs on them, and they're not monotizing that and kind of taking advantage of that i decided to jump in and kind of facilitate that. >> sow guys become a clearinghouse for hooking up these influencers with big brands, and they do what with it you're not just a clearinghouse. you do what? >> we create the content for me it's really about making it cool because it's not about just like where the eyeballs are looking. it's about what they think of the people that they're looking at for example, the kardashians like, they won throughout the years because they only had the
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coolest in style brand when they wear something like yeezy yeezy's that becomes the next big. it's about marketing the person and creating a brand around it, and then putting a product and, like, basically doing that >> you think some of your friends are doing this wrong when they hold up a product and just say it's -- accident loo like an ad >> it doesn't work because from the consumer standpoint, they don't care unless they think it's cool. they don't care unless their friends think it's cool. or unless everyone else is buying it. you know what i mean it's really about that look, i mean, let's be hoppest about where the eyeballs are these days when you are in the car, you're looking at your phone. when the commercials come on, you're looking at your phone we're just trying to monotize that and get in on that. >> you have a partner in this. >> i do, yes yes. it's michael grauen. . >> he is 19. >> he is 19. he is a hustler. he works very, very hard >> maybe you could see joe
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kernan he is an influencer. >> i'm really not. i'm not even -- i was thinking e guess this dwie to you is like an old man, but if you were to walk many in someone's foot steps jared has got it going on. ledo >> jared ledo. >> oh, 30 seconds. academy award -- >> jared ledo is great >> he invested in every start-up that was worth >> he is amazing >> he is an old man, right i guess -- >> he is -- >> he is older he is not an old man he is older, though. >> just giving you something to aspire to. will you end up with, like, some type of basket of unicorns in the internet arena >> we'll end up with a bunch of brands, individual brands, like personal brands, and then we can monotize on that my end goal is that we have all of the upcoming kylie jenners and the upcoming people. we find them when they're young and grow them, and then they
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become that image, and we -- >> who do you have reason? are there names we would recognize or that we should? >> you should recognize them there's a girl chloe she's a model. she has two million. >> two million followers >> two million is our average. then we have higher from there >> what kind of brands are you looking? what big brands are you kind of thinking this is who we bring in >> yeah, yeah, yeah. we are working with nissan right now. we work with apps on the app store developers, they want to work with us to push their apps into the main stream audience. >> the kardashians are, like, a bonefied -- it's hard for some of us to understand. some of us point to the decline of western society based on the kardashians. >> at the end of the day what it is is it's like the kardashians wear certain clothing, they do a certain thing. >> they are famous why >> they're famous because they are famous, and they have great taste, and they are the icons. they're the people that they look up to when you open up a making zpleen
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and you're a kid, you want to see what to aspire to. >> i can't -- it happens in my house too. >> hundreds of millions of dollars. >> as spieration pirational, jo. you know why she's fails, and i think we should go to break on that >> the end of the world as we know it. >> and i feel fine >> i feel fine thank you. >> thank you for having me on. >> and good luck >> in the same vein, just like -- >> very similar. >> thank you for -- >> we'll see you again soon. >> president trump giving his first major speech today since tax reform passed. we'll talk to council of economic advisors. he will join us 70 m. stern from the white house help you reach your goals. it's having the confidence to create the future that's most meaningful to you. it's protection for generations of families,
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markets looking to kick offer the week in the green. the dow, the s&p, and the nasdaq all sitting at record highs. earnings season is just around the corner a setup for the trading day is straight ahead the state of the economy council of economic advisors chair kevin has et joins us for a newsmaking interview is there a retail apocalypse on the horizon? new data on how many malls will be shutting down this year 2018 it's the second hour of "squawk box" that begins right now ♪ it's the end of the world as we know it ♪
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>> in our headlines, actually -- let's look at the futures first. the dow futures up by about nine the s&p futures have just turned down, and the nasdaq has turned down too dow futures were up by about 45 points just an hour ago we'll see where we get as we get a little closer to the opening bell in our headlines at this hour, it is a light week ahead for economic data on wall street on thursday -- on friday we'll be getting december retail sales and cpi. don't worry. there's plenty to talk about earnings season officially gets underway on friday as well with results from jp morgan and wells fargo. some other companies reporting this week, include home builders lennar and kb homes. a pair of big apple investors are urging the tech giant to take action to curb the growing smartphone addiction among children jana partners and kacasters own combined 2,000 shares of apple they want apple to set up new tools for parents to slow and
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limit iphone use investors who are doing this they say they want to make sure that they are looking for any blind spots or things that would hurt the company down the road after spending the weekend at camp david, president trump is going to be addressing the american farm bureau federation convention in nashville today. he will then head to the cleanly football playoff national championship game in atlanta to watch the george gornl bulldogs battle the alabama crimson tide. >> a few stocks on the move this morning. snap downgraded to hold from buy. hit the firm $16 price target the analyst cites the need for fundamental execution and some negatives behind the redesign of the updated snapchat app >> nvidea has -- the chip maker is looking to expand its presence in the autonomous driver space it will use chips for ai computing system in the fleet of its self-driving cars, and vw will use the drive nine platform, which includes
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features such as facial recognition and gesture controls the announcements were made at the consumer electronics show in las vegas yesterday. current levels essentially means thinking that this bull market can be the greatest of all time mike santoli is here he joins us right now to explain how this might work. >> well, becky, i mean a lot more upside. okay it's the greatest bull market of all time it ended in 2000 i have a piece up now on cnbc.com that kind of looks at the fact that this market reason since 2009 is longer and stronger than just about any
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other one. it has reached a high enough valuation that really the 90s run is the only one that is the relevant comparison right now. >> the market is in really good shape right now coming into this year if you look at the way it accelerated into the first week of this year, it's very sturdy credit conditions are very good. i think it's almost as if we have a shot at something like a challenge to those returns
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>> how much more will we need to run? >> a lot i think basically if you have got the next couple of years if the s&p got above 4,000, you would be talking something similar in the way of returns. of course, you know, other things you could look at right now the sector breakdown of the s&p 500 is pretty much in line with the earnings breakdown. you're not seeing a lot of the kind of. >> i don't want to start that until 15 >> in the piece i mentioned that if you say in 2013 when we hit an all-time high -- >> go from there where. >> then we're in 1987. instead of, you know, 19 9.
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>> he is a cnbc contributor. just people that -- yeah >> they don't even it's happening >> people stop me. >> you do it legally or not, that is who you are. 57 p points in four days last week we do 1,000 points now theoretically in less than eight days if it were to go like that. i'm just saying a reversion to the mean is absolutely something that's going to happen as we go into each fort coming month. otherwise, we'll be up 100% in a year >> okay. there will be a reversion in the mean my big question to you, though,
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is 25%, 26% last year. can we do it again this year, or is it a high single digits return that all the sell side guys say to cover their ass, basically? that's all they ever say is anyone having the nerve to step out and say could be like the mid 1990s where we did 25 -- 35, 35, 35 in three years back then can we do 25, 25, 25 >> every year when people ask me that question, my answer is always -- >> is that obvious a question? someone asks you every year. >> you pointed that out, not me. my answer has been very consistently it will be higher than people think. right? i don't really know. >> what do people think? >> right now i think people think that we're probably high single digits. maybe 10%, 12% something like that i think it's higher. >> you do? >> that's a statement. >> look, 2.6% in four days >> yeah, right >> but i think, look, if you are positioning a portfolio to be up 20% or down, which is more
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likely to happen this year i would say up 20% >> do you like reversion in the mean or regression in the mean or is it interchangeable >> i have never thought about it >> charles, just overall comment not about that, but about these equity markets or whereever you want to go >> mean reversion is a powerful concept. it goes across asset classes you can't necessarily say the timing on when it is going to happen, but it usually happens smart investors will look to protect the down side, protect their principle from deterioration. >> sflo there are a whole set of uncertain factors. the question is are sthe going to be minor variables or critical variables or set the market tenor i can generally speaking individually and collectively they'll be minor more likely the economy continues to expand. europe continues to expand you know, it wasn't that long ago where we were talking about the disintegration of the euro
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zone now not only are they growing faster, but they're growing at a converging rate. individually and collectively euro zone is doing better. japan is doing better. earnings in the united states 155, 160 you put a multiple on it maybe it's higher than 160 my guess is we get in that, you know, as you say, cover your back >> i've been hearing high single digits nobody was bullish for 2017. no one said any -- >> no one said 25% to 30%. >> i didn't predict anything i just said that that's what people would think >> god for bbid you predict something. >> i'm not a sell side >> they let me be bearish for a long time. >> that wasn't an awful time to be bearish the if market has gone from 800 in 1982 to 25,000, it really was
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never that great a time. just saying it's going to be up rather than down is saying something. >> the global economy is in a real sweet spot right now, and, yes, we went up a lot last year, but, you know, when i look at down side risk, what could go wrong with u.s. and global economy, it's a much shorter list this year than it has been in the past. there's no real visible signs of inflation. we have cpi and ppi this week, but starting to gradually creep higher towards the fed's target, but we're proibl aier or two away from hitting those targets.
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we're not too concerned right now. >> you know, i don't know how business cycles end, but i've been at least told that it has to do with overheating and bankers tighten. you just said that not only will inflation not be a problem where you get worried, but it won't even hit the target that we're on the under -- we're on the other side of the target that they're trying for for another year, so that seems like anything that would become a problem could be two, three, four years out no >> absolutely. you know, like i do, i think there's a lot of room to run here you know, oil prices have creeped higher above $60 a barrel we're going to be pumping more oil now. that's going to keep a lid on oil prices you know, i don't see a lot of callous for higher inflation we got the employment report last week, and now our hourly average earnings remained luke warm at 2.5% growth. there's not a lot of wage pressure either. when i look at inflation demand
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of whole inflation leading to a more aggressive fed, i don't see a lot of evidence of that right now. >> that's going to do it this time >> i think we're going to have the continued expansion. the markets are compared to a year ago much more comfortable with this administration they know more about it. they know to respond to the administration's actions instead of what they say this is the big change from a year ago i think we'll continue to see regulatory reversion and rollback that was a critical driver last year central bank policy accommodation, i think powell will prove to be dovish and accommodative. he will be cautious. he doesn't want to make a mistake, obviously tighten too quickly. you're going to have corporate results come in pretty healthily. >> i hope the temperature goes up that's supposed to happen later this week. i mean, that would be -- if it stays at zero, i'm going to get
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bear e bearish. >> so effing cold. not to use your name in vein, but it was like -- there were times it was like 10, 12 i on would look at my screen it was, like, 12 below that's bad, right? >> it says a lot about this market that the cold was even one of the bullet points for the bulls, right people are buying coats. natural gas is up. >> thank you >> charles, thanks you're going to be here, richard. >> you're going to hang out. all right. scott, thank you >> thank you >> all right we'll see you. >> when we come back, are malls facing a retail apocalypse closings projected to increase this year as department stores are trying to figure out how to compete with the likes of amazon and other big on-line retailers. we have the details right after the break. >> care kevin has et will be our guest. stay tuned you are watching "squawk box" here on cnbc
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>> after a tough year at the mall, even more shopping centers are projected to close in 2018 joining us right now is garrett
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brown. he is curbman and wakefield's vice president of retail research of the americas, and, garrett, thanks for being here today. >> we know it's been a difficult time for brick and mortar retail what can you lay out for 2018? >> well, you know, it's interesting because we just had an incredible christmas. by all accounts, master card had us at 4.9% sales boost, which would put us at the largest sales increase since the recession. snoo unfortunately, the less that sales rally continues throughout the first quarter and the second quarter, what's most likely going to happen this year is we're going to see a number of key retail bankruptcies most likely play out. last year we saw 36 major chain
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bankruptcies the largest number since 2009. this year we might not see as many, but if, for example, sears does go down, we'll see the impact of the bankruptcies really grabbing the market in a much greater way than we saw last year. it goes down about 580 department stores. >> there could be some from penny skpes dillard's. we could see 1,000 department stores closing in 2018 >> you're coming at this from the perspective of a real estate services company, and somebody who is really looking at how this is going to impact all these spaces we know that the class a malls probably aren't going to be impacted they're doing very well, but you have the b, the c, and the d
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malls that are out there what is this all adding up to just in terms of real estate and what happens to those places >> sure. well, like you aid, class a malls, they're going to feel the impact of some of the bankruptcies, but if it's, say, a sears goes down, it actually is a bit of a payday for your class a mall operators because in most cases those leases were set up 30, 40 years ago or more when these were extremely relevant retail concepts, and you essentially gave the space away it's not uncommon to find a mall, a class a mall in the u.s. where the inline rent wants to go into the mall might be $80 a conveyor square foot or more yet, the erikors may be $5 of square foot or less. it will be an opportunity for those operators to chop up a space and get current rents with much more relevant current retailers. the challenge really comes for
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your b malls, and i think in the b mall marketplace, what you are going to increasingly see, that's where all the innovations probably going to be you're going to see empty macy's replaced with off price apparel. it won't be uncommon to see a tj max home goods on one floor, tj max on the other really tenants that usually go power sectors. >> what i have heard over and over again is that we have overstored america if you look at the square footable here versus any other country, we are just in a position where that has to shrink how does that happen >> does it happen this year? >> well, we had about 1,150 malls. 300 -- or class a or up, and about 300 are class b minus or below. it's the b minus or below malls that really are most likely going to start to see the beginning of the death spirals class b will ino vat they'll bring in more experie e
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experienceal type concepts you might see warehouse stores, grocery stores, that type of thipg going in. >> the big story is going to be these properties being bought by developers for pennies on the dollar, and eventually most of them recreated as mixed use projects of some sort or another. >> all right garrett, i want to thank you for joining us today, and we'll see how this all fairs through the course of this year. >> thanks for having me. >> coming up, council of economic advisors chair kevin has hasset is our guest, and then the app that can predict price drops for airfares the ceo of hopper joins us later to talk prices and where you can go to get out
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. >> the national average retail price of regular gas -- the national average of regular grade gasoline has increase the by about 3 cents over the past three weeks. that reverses the 3 cent decline from the first two weeks of december the average price is now $2.54 a gallon >> that's what you wonder how long oil will be here. touching at $62. >> go to 80 according to -- >> when do we start wafrping demand >> for oil >> i think youalready do i mean, if you look around the world, it's -- >> stuck in the supply >> i mean, chinese demand has been quite strong. quite strong >> but if we're in this global
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growth, shouldn't it just be about whether we frack or not. >> no, it's not. it's not already inventories have been drawn down, and, you know, there's -- i mean, it's a life cycle environment. >> when we come back, the council of economic advisors chairman kevin hasset will join us from the white house. right now let's take a look at the u.s. equity futures at this hour at this point red arrows across the board. these are modest declines, but it's well down from where we started the morning. the dow futures were up by 45 points above fair value. now down by seven points "squawk box" will be rig bk.htac thankfully, the breakthrough in prevagen helps your brain and actually improves memory. the secret is an ingredient originally discovered... in jellyfish. in clinical trials, prevagen has been shown
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good morning welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the max market site in times square let's talk about the stories that are front and center this morning. lululemon is raising its fourth quarter earnings and revenue guidance the results there were helped by a strong holiday shopping season, and if you want to take a look at lululemon shares,
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you'll see that they are up by 1.8% by the way, crocs has upbeat revenue guidance let's take a look at shares of crocs. up by about .8%. kohl's is reporting better than expected holiday sales, and as a result the retailer is raising its full year profit forecast. that stock up by 6.7%. >> investors think inflation could be coming in 2018, and they're using commodities as a hedge. jackie deangeles joins us hnow. bernstein was making this point on the break that you are seeing some evidence. >> well, there are different views on this. you also had a guest on earlier that was saying he didn't see it in the market. as investors are preparing their 2018 investment strategies, they're definitely factoring in some inflation here. we looked at the commitment of traders report over the course of the fourth quarter, and there is evidence that managed money has been slowly adding to its
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long positions in oil and gold gasoline and copper. they're also commodities to watch. oil is up roughly 25%. gasoline up 15%. gold, it was out of favor last year it jumped almost 4% in the last three months this last move over 1,300 traders tell me is likely to hold take a look at copper. 6.5% move in the same time period its usesed as an industrial metal certainly signaling this belief that the demand will be strong, and it's also an indicator of inflationary factors. bottom line here, it's expected to move up gradually inflation no one has been telling me it's alarming, but they're definitely positioning for it it's also possible for stocks and commodities to move higher together this year a hard asset are hedging strategy guys >> richard, what do you think about it where are you seeing we were just talking off camera
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where you are seeing signs of this >> no, i think it's much more broad-based than people think right now. i think one of my favorite series, not necessarily a great predictor, is vendor delivery time it measures how long does it take for -- to get something from your supplier vendor delivery times are lengthening, and that means that if demand is greater than supply, that means prices go up. it's a normal phenomenon in a late cycle environment i don't think -- i think the real risk to all this is in the fixed income market. i think fixed income investors are playing ostrich. they don't want to believe that we're not in the disinflationary environment anymore. >> thank you >> sure thing. >> the labor department reporting since friday, if you were watching 148,000 nonfarm payrolls were added in december. it makes 87 straight months of job gains, the longest streak on record joining us now council of economic advisors chairman kevin hasset, outside the white house. ken, it's great to see you, and i have been talking about this >> miss you guys >> you're quoted in this piece your ears might have been
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burning earlier because we were talking about you. >> everything is freezing right now. >> yeah. actually, when you go inside, they can burn from being out dlz a lot of ways of trying to figure out forecasts, kevin, and i would say that a lot of times going against the crowd is, like, the best way, and i have never seen a consensus more consistent that we're not capable of doing anything better than 2 periods it's almost as if -- a lot of these guys were around for those eight years, and they have a vested interest in it not being possible to be above 2% because they just have to cling to their policies, which really i think held back the economy, and just based on going against the crowd, i think, will do better than expectations. the crowd is always wrong. >> you can say that for a while, and we're about to, i think, have our third quarter in a row north of 3%, and so i think that if we look back, i think what economic historians will say is that the obama administration
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gave us a whole bunch of policies like heavy regulation and high taxes and those things constrain the economy and gave us the very low economic growth, and then they blamed it on secular stagnation and external factors. that's why they're so upset right now. if you watch, like, how angry they are every time they appear on tv, it's because they can't stand the 3% growth because it's proven them wrong. >> they attack you it's unbelievable. you know, these are -- these are nice feeling liberals that attack you with horrific -- it's unbelievable >> yeah. >> but the fact is the policies are working. we're getting 3% growth. we've got a big tax cut, a historic tax cut, and that will lift growth up next year even more >> okay. so here's the illustrious cbo. the next ten years they're going to grant us 1.8% mighty big of them 1.8%.
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when can we become socialism land when we stopped having babies? why are we -- >> there are things that slow growth down like the baby boomers retiring and stuff like that let's just stipulate late that whatever we get north of 1.8% going forward is president trump's policies >> the same guys missed the -- they missed the slowdown that we saw in the last decade, and i think about, you know, what happened in the 1990s. there was some pro-growth principle and tax cuts that went in, and then i think about what happened in the last decade, and i can point to exactly what could have caused that i mean, is it really more complex than all this? >> no, it's not. what's going to happen is we're going to get a lot of capital
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formation here in the u.s., and that capital formation is going to make more innovation happen and more productivity growth happen, and then wages will go up people will get that $4,000 at least that we've been talking about. you've seen all these firms come out. you know, we got more than a million people getting raises of around $1,000 just because the tax bill passed a few weeks ago. all the stuff is starting to happen it's working the way economics says is it ought to. i think that means we ought to be optimistic about next year, and i know you talk a lot about interest rates on this program, and, of course, i respect the independence of the fed, about ut, you know, our mogdsing is the supply side tax cut. that's going to increase supply and put downward pressure on prices and take pressure off the fed. >> a lot of times people -- i'll say something about the main stream media, and they'll say you are the main stream media. >> you are >> am i? am i the mainstream media? >> then i need to ask you a question >> you're mainstream >> do you talk to the president? >> yeah, sure. >> when you are talking to him, is he like hearing voices and twitching? like swat be
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>> everybody -- >> is he -- >> it's something that nobody covers i really would love the opportunity to say this. we show up every day we really do we just do our jobs. we talk about what are we going to do about this and that? >> you talk to -- >> i have never talked about the media with anyone in the white house. >> i have known him for 20 years, and he is an interesting guy. i'll tell you. unstable and mentally ill and unfit. i mean, that's -- those are powerful charges to make, aren't they >> it's just ridiculous. >> the russia thing is slowing down, so now -- >> if you go back and look at republican presidents, then as far as a lot of people in the media are concerned, they're always either stupid or evil, right? i mean, you can even go back and say is this guy stupid or evil >> jared ford kept hitting his head on things on saturday night live >> he was the smartest, nicest guy. he was a professional athlete.
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>>. >> can you watch the weekend shows. there was nothing on iran in the protest. >> it was scintillating. >> my question, kevin is, richard bernstein -- >> good morning. >> my question is with the tax -- from an investment point of view, we invest all over the world, and one of the topics that people just are not talking about is how much of the tax cuts will leak abroad, the benefit of the tax cut what i mean is just take a firm like mine where we may buy new computers. where are those computers made they're made in china. they're made in korea, in taiwan they're not made here in the united states. if i save my tax cuts and i invest in emerging market fund, i'm lowering the cost of capital in the emerging markets. how much of that is -- should really be an opportunity for an investor like me to say that maybe people aren't thinking about how this might stimulate the emerging markets or something like that? >> well, i think that the big effect is that people are going to start moving activity back to the u.s. that used to be in tax
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havens there's going to be some stuff if you read the international tax rules where theelt be moving around if you are supplying into germany, it might be better to do it from the u.s. and also from ireland and so your german operation might move to ireland. there are a lot of moving parts out there. the big major effect is the stuff that used to be off shore, you know, i made a presentation of the american economic association of meetings on saturday, and if you have $100,000 of profits, if you located in ireland, then you get to keep after everything about 85,000 in the old tax law, and in the u.s. it was 63,000. you know, that difference is now much, much smaller a lot of stuff is going to be coming back to the u.s >> first couple of years is where you see the big effect i would see in the advanced herbal goods data, we're going to see in orders, which are going to go up because capital does take a while to deliver we should see it right away.
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we should see it in gdp next year, which definitely sustains the momentum that we're carrying into next year at around 3%. >> hey, kevin, let's talk a little bit about the economy and then the potential for inflation. if the economy really does pick up and it has all the stimulus coming from the tax plan or the tax bill that's gone be through the tax law at this point, what will that mean for growth, and will it be enough to spur inflation and make the fed raise interest rates more times than the market is anticipating >> it should not spur inflation because of the supply side impet impetus. we're starting with inflation a little below target. 100% i respect the independence of the fed if they decide they got to do something different that what they've been saying, we're totally fine with that, of course when we model it and look at the future path of interest rates and the general model that follows from the tax cuts, we don't see anything that's inconsistent with the current fed guidance >> so if you weren't part of the administration, kevin, would you -- i mean, did you ever feel a need to be more optimistic than you would normally be
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>> these are, like, really smart guys they're really absolutely sure that we are stuck in this morace >> we'll see we have all the data coming in >> if it works it's going to be synchronace global growth. it's going to be -- >> don't forget, it's the u.s. that is the engine of the global economy. if everybody else's economy starts to go up, it's in part going to be because the u.s. is boom, and we're buying a lot of stuff from them just like they're starting to buy stuff from us. >> what do you think eventually will happen to the yield curve over in europe i mean, i look at that, and i don't know i just don't understand it i don't understand, you know, 50 basis points on ten-year paper >> well, i think they're going to start growing like we're growing. you know, i was chairing the economy dwolt. >> let's want get carried away
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>> for them it's going to be great, and, you know, the oecb has racheted up its forecast for oecb the e.u. has jacked up for e.u. countries. i think what's going on is their tail winds for the global economy and in part i think that's led by optimism and accelerated activity in the u.s. i think that that's good news for everybody. you know, the u.s. historically for most of the second world war period was always the economy that kind of drove the global economy, and i think that president trump has taken us with policy to a place where that's happened again. sorry for the kerfuffle behind me >> if he is not hearing voices, do you ever -- i'm saying that just kidding, but when you do talk to him, do you ever just whisper about entitle the reform and if we do get growth, maybe there's a good time in the future to look at some of the most nagging issues that i worry about 20, 30, 40 years from now? you know, along with global warming.
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>> all those things will be front and center, and you'll see a lot of news on those things. absolutely this is a president who finds the economy's problems, fixes them, moves on to the next thing. we had a really, really big victory on tax that's behind us now we're not celebrating anymore. we're focused on the next victory. i have a meeting at 8:00 in the west wing, and we're going to look -- >> i thought those meetings didn't start until 11:00 now >> that's not true >> so that's -- >> okay, kevin hasset, thank you. >> thanks, guys. great to be here >> you always have a spot here you know that. >> you need a better heater out here >> too much warming. i got it >> all right, folks. news alert for you we are going to take a lake-effect at some live pictures of trump tower on fifth
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avenue in new york city. you can see some spoke coming off of the top things are looking like they're under control at this point, but the nypd is confirming that this is a roof top electrical fire at trump tower. firefighters are on the scene. there have been no injuries. the building is not being evacuated, and as you know, the president is at the white house, not at trump tower this is something that is catching a lot of attention in midtown manhattan this morning it's slowing things down there have been closures on some of the streets, and we will continue to watch it, but it looks like things are under control at this point. when we come back, today marks 14 straight days of below freezing temperatures in new york it's time to head to better weather. the ceo of hopper willhelp us to warm up that's right after the break zpleerngts then in the next hour of "squawk box," the ceo of biogen will join us. stick around "squawk box" will be right back. and the wolf huffed and puffed...
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welcome back to "squawk box. the futures are mixed. they've turned a little bit red repeatly now a little worse than they were before. down 22 on the dow down five and change on the s&p. down seven and change on the
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nasdaq says. >> if you are looking to fly south after last week's arctic temperatures turns out you're not alone. flight prediction app hopper recorded as much as a 75% surge in searches related to warm weather hot spots like hawaii. joining us now to talk more about that is fred loland. he is founder and ceo of hop esh. thaur for being here today >> thank you >> let's talk about hopper, first of all the app. what does it do? >> so hopper predicts accurately flight prices in the futures for any flight route in the world, up to a year in advance to the day within $5, hopper is able to tell you what the future price of the air ticket will be, allowing you to buy it at the right time >> how can you possibly p that i'm guessing the airlines don't even know what their price will be a year from now >> we process a lot of data. on average we will intake 300 billion flight prices a month, and with that amount of data and
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a bunch of machine learning, we're actually able to look at what's happening on the pricing algorithm level. it requires looch depth in the data analytics, and it really hadn't been done before we release the app. it works fairly well in the sense that the average consumer saves $40 on the air ticket, which can add up >> when did you start doing this how long were you keeping records? i would think with something like oil prices going up, that would change things and your algorithm wouldn't be able to figure that out unless it was able to predict the price of oil a year from now. >> our archive has about five and a half years of historic data to be truthful, it really started working once we had three years of data accumulated. the way airline prices function, they don't take in market demand we observe it, but the way that
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the airlines price their tickets has a lot to do with the capacity the plane what seats are filled up in a way they're kind of replaying like a ticker tape what they've done in the previous years, and the seasonal adjustments for prices like oil can be calculated from the computer >> yeah, but you're talking about five years, and we haven't seen a super spike in oil prize. if you were to see oil come back at something like that, your algorithms wouldn't know about it, right? >> yeah. actually, the way that oil prices factors in, it's a component of the airline price, but there's a lot of competition that factors in. for example, you're seeing a lot of low cost carrier capacity come on-line between the u.s. and europe you're also seeing the same thing happen towards southeast asia, so oil is not the only factor there right now oil prices are around the 2010 levels. about 1 .2% higher we're seeing for january the average airfare is around 1.7% higher than last year. january remains the best time to buy the ticket
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>> go ahead. >> i was going to say, what happens if it's wrong? what if you say to a consumer that it's going to be $1 00 ticket, and there is a hurricane that turns out to be a $200 ticket what happens for the consumer? >> we were actually worried about that when we were building it, and what happens in reality, and we've had 45 million trips being planned on the app in reality people don't follow the forecast until the last minute, so the lowest possible forecasted price could be for one or two seats when you think of it, you're not buying a pair of shoes you're traveling, you know, across the country, says around the world. you have other considerations, you know, like the hotel and the logistics. what we're seeing is that people are mostly looking for something that's on their side, reassurance that's helping them make the decision, and the majority of people don't wait for the absolute lowest price. what they're looking to do is make sure they didn't overpay and they want to feel good about this purchase. we've had very, very low incidences of cases where people
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actually got misled by the algorithm, and people are smart. they also compare and shop around >> all right fred, we want to thank you for joining us today >> thank you it's a pleasure. coming up, stocks to watch ahead of the owning bell on wall street as we head to break, here's a look at european markets at this hour "squawk box" will be right back. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ what we do every night is like something out of a strange dream. except that the next morning... it all makes sense. fedex powers global commerce
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we know life can be hectic. that's why, at xfinity, we've been working hard to simplify your experiences with us. now, with instant text and email updates, you'll always be up to date. you can easily add premium channels, so you don't miss your favorite show. and with just a single word, find all the answers you're looking for - because getting what you need should be simple, fast, and easy. download the xfinity my account app or go online today.
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>> a couple of stocks to watch based on analyst moves we'll start with caterpillar upgraded to overweight from neutral at jp morgan the price target increased to 200. united technologies was upgraded to buy from neutral at goldman sachs. the price target raised to 173 deutsche bank downgraded to hold from buy at hsbc on friday the bank announced that it posed a small net loss for 2017 due in part to the u.s. tax overhaul and pandora was downgraded to equal weight from overweighted morgan stanley the price target cut to six from 12 they're way out in front of this call morgan stanley >> pandora shares trading at $5. >> i don't think it's going to -- six looks like a better target for them now than 12 does at morgan stanley. it's kind of cool because now the analysts can say, well, you know, i had a $6 price target.
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you know, from here on out, wall street is kind of a sess pool, isn't it >> whenever you listen to an analyst, you always have to figure out what that analyst has found that everybody else has not. the stories are a dime a dozen about any company. it's what have you found that everybody else has not >> yeah, because they go with the -- even on this previous call, i want to know like on the one where they raised it to -- i want to know where he was, how much lower than where it is now was his old price target you know, it's all the kind of background because you don't know whether it's a catch-up call or a new call or an old call or they're just, you know, trying to cover for just a horrific call that they had before clup, we'll have more with our guest host richard bernstein. we'll be talking taxes and with
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the soeshlted builders and a roundup of the big winners at the golden globes last nit.gh big details when "squawk box" comes right back
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zbliefrmt week ahead on wall street all three indexes sitting at record highs with earnings season almost upon us. what you need to watch is straight ahead the wood stock of health care we're live at the sector's biggest investor event of the year an exclusive interview with the ceo of biogen is coming up and the winner is. we'll tell you which streaming platform took home the most golden globes. the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now. >> good morning and welcome back to "squawk box." please don't change the channel. with the nasdaq market site in times square it's going to be over very soon i'm joe kernan along with becky quick. andrew is off today. our guest host is richard bernstein, selecting the music
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today. ceo of richard bernstein advisors he is also a cnbc contributor. let's get a check on the markets this morning the futures right now are pulling back i mean, plunging, i think, you would say given what we're used to >> it's a move of 60 points in the morning. that is a move for the down futures. >> up 45 to down 15. >> dow 15. the nay sayers were right about this guy >> the run is over >> the s&p down -- >> who knows, though you never know we did mention, you know, 570 points last week that's a pace that just -- >> 577 >> that's a pace there has to be some type of reversion to the mean at sh point, you would think >> treasury yields this morning, that's another one too that we're worried about it we ascribe all kinds of ulterior motives to why the ten-year can't get any higher look over in europe. did you see the german ten-year? >> i did not >> they're, leak, 50 basis points >> it's like a 200 basis points spread >> joe, maybe it's a risk
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premium, joe >> what? >> if you think there's risk at a ten-year piece of paper at 2% -- >> just saying >>. >> pick out some more music. >> in corporate news this morning, apple facing some pressurethey try to help parents control and limit smartphone use, and to study the impact of overuse on mental health for children. janna is looking to raise a new several billion dollar fund this year to target companies that it believes can be better corporate citizens rock star sting will be on the aid advisory board, and, by the way, a programming note for you, janna partners barry rosenstein
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will be on "the halftime report" at noon eastern time today >> do you think his name on the thing is really sting? i mean, do you think he -- >> of course, it's not >> he put his real name on >> no, no, i bet they put sting on it because they're using him for a reason to make sure they get the name recognition >> do you want to go through life -- well, you're effing. >> do you want to be called sting? >> it's better -- >> do you even know his real name >>. >> his brand is his name it's the brand why not? why wouldn't you stick with it >> i just think -- i don't know. he is an adult man he is my age, i think. his name is sting? >> it's -- >> better than flee. >> i like flee flee, i like lice, flee >> okay, snake head. let's talk about lulu des lemon. the athleisure retailer upped its profit and revenue forecast for the fourth quarter
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earnings season kicks into high gear on friday that's when we get results from jm organ morgan and wells fargo. lennar and kb homes are also included >> gordon sumner >> is sting? >> gordon matthew thomas sumner. yes. and bono is paul david hussen. elton john was reginald kenneth dwight check out the shares -- >> apparently the edge is dave evans. >> dave evans, like our producer the edge plays guitar shares of snap in the red after a downgrade from buy to hold at jeffreys that firm says dpujts execution needs to be shown before it can be more positive they also say the updated snapchat app could lead to some turbulence and usage and adoption when it actually does roll out >> now let's get to politics
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big money is lining up to sell the tax law across the country elan is here on set with us to tell us that story it's great to see you. >> great to see you too, becky >> so republicans had a major legislative victory when they passed their tax plan, but they're hoping that turns into a political victory during 2018 and during the midterm elections as well. they're getting a little bit of help from their friends. outside groups are committing to spend millions of dollars to sell this law to the american people the american action network says it's committing at least $10 million starting with the $2 million ad campaign. it's already airing across about two dozen congressional districts.
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>> the bul of voters oppose it, and many won't see any benefit from it. democrats are hoping to leverage this in order to capitalize on that unpopularity. they have their own well funded opposition campaign as well. $10 million is part of the not one penny coalition. they use the repeal the trump tax in kansas this weekend they are planning to work with top democratic lawmakers as well to hold tax teach-ins over the coming long weekend. all the company announcements of bonuses and pay raises that have been tied to the lost passage. the white house put "statement calling the trump bonuses and said that they are only the beginning. guys, republicans are hoping that the tax plan not only pays for itself, but that it also sells itself once workers see more money in their paychecks. >> first of all, those poll numbers were better than we had
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seen even just weeks ago that actually 48% oppose it. before we had seen that even the majority of people opposed it. you're right the real issue will be what people see in irthis own paychecks. that's probably the best sales tactic that the republicans have >> i kind of wonder, though, if these bonuses are coming too soon there was some sort of political chatter about, well, maybe if republicans actually passed their tax bill in the summer of 2018 that's better politically because workers see that bump in their paychecks right before the election a worker is going to remember, you know, a bonus that they got in january come time -- >> when people start seeing what happens to their paycheck, if it's -- if they're impacted one way or the other by the taxes, if their tax bill goes down and they see >> how much of it is bonuses it how much of it is raised wages? exactly. >> that's a big issue too. >> right >> thank you, elan >> thank you the white house says that infrastructure will be a big legislative priority in 2018 president trump's $1 trillion plan is due out this month, and
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for more on that let's bring in michael belleman, president and ceo of associated builders and contractors. what can you tell us right now about the state of your industry how do things stand before we hear about any infrastructure plan >> well, we're at all-time highs. 1.26 trillion in spend we haven't seen anything at that level since 2007, 2008 we're projecting another 2% to 3% growth this year. wage growth and our industry has gone up about 4% in 2017 why have you seen that improvement? why are things at this high level? >> well, we see confidence in our board of directors we do a confidence survey every board meeting we have. we have three a year.
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>> when housing took a real downturn >> that's definitely one factor. i think another factor is the systematic factor with regards to education system taking vo-tech training out of schools a number of years ago. that whole trajectory is changing the president issued an executive order expanding apprenticeships earlier this year that task force is underway.
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trying to promote apprenticeship training not only in our industry, but as well as manufacturing. there's a prosper act that's going through congress right now that's taking a look at the educational side of that certification. this is really a wonderful opportunity. a career construction has limitless opportunities. people enter the construction industry using their hands, learning skills. next thing you know they're entrepreneurs, and they are running a business 98% of construction companies in the united states employ less than 100 people. >> right >> we're a small business dmunt. >> michael, i just wonder if we do see an infrastructure bill that comes through, obviously there's a real need for infrastructure building in the united states, and you can point to all kinds of places for that. what happens if that comes through if you are already at all-time highs and you are facing shortages and can't find people to do the work sf. >> for every million of drarz -- it creates 6.7 direct jobs that's 100,000 jobs per year roughly if we get that $100
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billion per year that's going to be quite a challenge. >> we've added 250,000 jobs this year, but when you compare this year's spend to the last time we had the penned weers about 5 had been,000 jobs shy. we're really in a big challenge in terms of making our industry attractive where. >> michael, from an investment point of view, is there -- it almost sounds like you're saying there's a real risk that wages that labor may take a bigger portion of this. is there a risk that wages rise faster than corporate earnings in a construction sector now >> i mean, are mashlg rgins und pressure >> margins are increasing over the next six months as well, we believe. at 1.26 trillion a year, the
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demand for our industry and our services in our industry is very high we continue to expect that growth with that combined with the demand for labor, i do believe wage growth will grow a little bit quicker probably than profits. >> all right, michael. want to u that for your time this morning >> thank you very much >> before we head to break, here's a quick programming note. we're going to talk to the author of that bombshell book about the trump white house. michael wolff will join us on set at 8:00 a.m. eastern time tomorrow coming up, cashing in on maga the make america great etf is up more than 13% since it launched last september we'll check in with the founder of the fund after the break. then coming up in the next half hour we'll talk to the ceo of biogen about tax reform's impact on pharma, drug pricing, and a lot more stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" on c flbs nbc nobody's putting their money into equities.
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they're not investing in commodities or fixed income. what people are really putting their money into is what they hope to get out of life. but helping them get there requires a real refusal to settle for average. because when you approach investing with a tireless desire to beat the status quo, something wonderful can happen. those people might just get what they wanted out of life. or maybe even more.
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we know life can be hectic. that's why, at xfinity, we've been working hard to simplify your experiences with us. now, with instant text and email updates, you'll always be up to date. you can easily add premium channels, so you don't miss your favorite show. and with just a single word, find all the answers you're looking for - because getting what you need should be simple, fast, and easy. download the xfinity my account app or go online today. . >> welcome back. there are the futures. dow now down 11. the s&p down 4.5 and the nasdaq down 5.5 president trump praising the
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make america great agenda in a tweet last night here it is the stock market has been creating tremendous benefits for our country in the form of not only recordsetting stock prices, but present and future jobs. jobs jobs $7 trillion of value created since our big election win let's find out how the maga, the maga etf is performing the man behind the fund, hall lambert. is this etf managed to outpace any of the averages? or are there reasons that you are a little bit insulated maybe from the down side in certain ways >> actually, it's done extremely well launched september 6th since the launch we're up over 1%, actually, through friday which is about 2% better than the s&p 500. >> and the tax reform when it passed, what did that -- did you sew an immediate bump on some of this >> certainly i mean, the tax reform is huge i mean, clearly the equities are benefitting from the trump
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agenda, and the economic growth for 2018 looks to be set up very nicely >> so last time you were on, i think you explained exactly what constituted the bulk of the etf. can you do it again? can you tell which areas you find most appealing if approximate you believe in maga? >> well, these are all based on political contributions of companies in the s&p 500 it's the top political contributors to republicans. it's about 21% industrials it's about 20% financials. it's about 17% -- >> yoo you are thought process is if you are contributing and donating to these candidates -- get it passed or regulations down the benefits. >> it's not so much that it's more that money matters in politics look, we would have never had these tax cuts if you want policies that are republican policies, which i think are the best for the
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economic growth, then you want to support companies that are heavily supporting republicans to get elected >> that does sound like a pay to play sort of scenario for thesis and how you figure that out. >> money matters in politics, and so -- but there are plenty of companies that are giving to democrats, and so that's -- you know, people have that option. i think people should have the option the first time ever people have had the ability to invest based on political contributions >> bernstein -- i mean, your whatever -- your investment firm, it's not a socially responsible type thing do you have any -- because you could get -- >> we actually have an etf -- >> well, you could get the list of his etf's and just make sure you never own any of those would you like -- >> could you provide rich with a list just in case he is about to buy a republican funded stock? >> exactly >> in on good conscience, what if you found out that some of the stocks you owned were -- >> wwmt.
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>> realistically, we are very dispassionate about our politics i mean, you have to be over the last eight to ten years. >> might be okay then. >> you have to you have be to very dispassionate about your politics i think, you know, look, we have an etf margin -- >> etf it's small and midcap that was not our goal, but they're benefitting from it. great. you know, i mean, that's, you know -- i don't care whether it's a democrat or republican. >> a lot of people do care >> a lot of people do care zbroof they have the option to make their investments based on it >> he think it's been great, and what's interesting to me about this is we wouldn't have had these tax cuts companies that are heavily
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supporting democrats, they're actually against their own shareholder interest in my opinion. >> you ever change the -- >> we rebalance quarterly with the s&p. if the s&p changes, we'll change we're going to be looking obviously at the 2018 cycle. >> what's the position >> well, the biggest position
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right now is freeport mac moran. it's rallied freeport is the largest one currently. people can see all of this at invest politically.com look at all the positions and the fact sheet and learn about it >> all right thank you. >> thank you >> when we come back, why your favorite dunkin' donuts item may no longer be on the menu that after this.
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>> it's getting rid of slower moving items like afternoon sandwiches, smoothies, flat breads >> what? >> some muff you know, bagel, and cream cheese varieties the company says about 90ers approximate of items, though, will remain on the menu. the change takes effect today in new england and upstate new york before expanding to the rest of the nation >> that was the only thing i ever ate there if you are ever there with the kids, it's like they have a flat bread with an omelet all white omelets thing. that was the only thing i would ever -- >> they still have that. >> they said flat breads where. >> all the flat breads where.
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>> i saw something advertised yesterday. it appealed to me. it was like two for the price of $2 it was cheese. >> i saw it. i saw that too >> flat bread? >> some guy walking out and had two flat braeds. >> was that it >> still get that. i've been thinking about it. >> dieting so you are thinking about it >> want constantly thousand times this morning. the force is weak in china star wars the last jedi opening to a soft 28.7 million in that country over the weekend that was less than the prior two installments of the franchise. perhaps it's a signal that disney has not yet succeeded in its efforts to gain momentum in the world's second largest movie market worldwide it is last edi has grossed over $is.2 billion that makes it the 13th highest grossing film of all time. coming up, the woodstock for health care. we'll take you live to jp morgan's annual health care conference where big ceos are
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laying around stoned on grass and in the rain. that includes the chief executive. what do they mean? woodstock, not sure that's a good metaphor. they do it for everything. >> wood stock for capital -- >> it's nothing like wood stock. >> no. >> anyway, that is next. as we head to break, take a look at u.s. equity futures it can detect a threat using ai, and respond 60 times faster. it lets you know where your data lives, down to the very server. it keeps your insights from prying eyes, so they're used by no one else but you. it. is. the cloud. the ibm cloud. the cloud that's designed for your data. ai ready. secure to the core. the ibm cloud is the cloud for business.
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ask a financial advisor about pacific life.
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>> i'm joe kernan along with becky quick. andrew is off today. arconic will freeze pension plapz for all u.s.-based salary and nonbargain salaried
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employees. that will be effective on april 1st. the company will contribute to workers 401k plans, though, and match employee contributions hershey and the ferraro group both submitted final bids for nestle's u.s. candy business on friday i love butterfingers. >> you're not thinking about food all the time. >> sounded like former president -- i love butter fingers. sources say the unit, which includes brands such as butterfinger, baby ruth, valued at $2 billion.
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>> i think almond joy. mounds are always -- sometimes you feel like a nut. stiemsz you don't. >> do you want to keep talking about this, or we could go to yoga close lululemon is raising its fourth quarter earnings and revenue guidance and results on strong holiday shopping season. the shares are up almost 3% on the news to 81 looks like a new high. >> all right the jm pouringan health care conference kicking off in san francisco. our meg terrell is there with an exclusive interview. we think maybe the davos of hng might be better than the woodstock of -- although i don't know if it's anything useful that has ever come out of davos. >> it's good what do you think? is woodstock the right name, meg? i don't know >> joe, i don't know there are more business stuts over here than you probably have seen at wood stock joining us now, of course, the biogen ceo in an interview
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thank you for being here. >> it will be a good year, an eventful year. health care is such a big part of the gdp, and, therefore, the political scene and the worry of does the engagement of governments all over the world i would say the biggest event is the tax law that we are analyzing nowadays a lot of noise on all the topics, but we embrace and we approach 2018 with a good level of optimism. >> are the tax overhaul spur m&a in this space. how is biogen looking at the impact of its own business and whether it will influence whether you are look to make larger purchases >> we are working at closing now
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the loop for 2017 and getting ouract together on what will b the year -- impact of the tax law. it takes a little bit of time to see the plus and minuses there are provisions to be made. this is very positive. it may still have m&a activity even though they believe that the rationale behind the m&a should not be the cash available. i don't think that the industry will short of any cash at any time i hope that there's a meaning behind the activity. biogen will remain involved. we are looking at all sets of potential targets, and we are working on that quite a while. >> in your existing business, of course, alzheimer's is a key focus. you're investing billions of dollars in a very large late stage program. there's been so much failure in this area, though, and it's such a huge unmet need. lily just had a failure in a very similar program what confidence -- how much confidence do you have in that program? >> you're right, meg this is the year our mission in life, this is the focus of this
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organization >> there's a three-year extension that have results so far that we're communicating the meeting a few months ago where we can see a erosion and a slowdown of the cognition. having said that, it's a small end. it's the phase one but it's very important that did reinforces the design of the ongoing phase three. this is critical for which we should finish enrollment this year >> are we expecting to see an interim look at that study this year is it.
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>> the position of the company, as you can anticipate. >> do you plan to continue to escalate your prices in that way you have >> price is a very important topic, and aspect of the mix of the way we engage with a society. the way we set price for new products, the way we make price evolve, or the way we are facing price increase in the rest of the world. we look at that with a lot of care we involve customers. >> it's so critical that we are a prosper industry so that we can reinvest the proceeds of this activity for alleges hiemers that cause so much because you spoke about the
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clinical -- we are currently investing $1.5 billion into a biomanufacturing unit in order to be eventually in a position to manufacture for the world it is a tremendous investment, and this is the waythe model works. there is so much unmet political need, and in the face of aging society, the need is actually growing. we need to have the corporate america and pharma u.s.-based companies and orders being able to contribute the way we have done during the past years we see an acceleration, a better understanding of science, and acceleration of breakthrough to meet unmet political need. >> are you concerned about legislation coming in the united states to reign in drug pricing? >> i think that the industry has to be proactive. the industry should not sit and wait >> it needs to be the tesla of
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the industry and set new models. we cannot sit and wait let me give an example if i may. innovative based contracting, very important that was not done for so, so many years during the past year, we have contracted with five pdm's on having skin in the game based on the results and the outcome for patients this was seen as impossible. we need to bring this industry closer to the consumer, closer to the patients. we are meant to provide support to the patient who is sick not to take advantage of those >> michelle, well, we'll leave it there thank you for joining us this morning. >> thank you, meg. >> all right, guys coming up later today, the ceo of eli lily on squawk on the stroo et stay tuned for that. becky, back to you >> all right, meg. thank you very much. big technology is accelerating efforts to try and overhaul the health care technology industry.
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deirdre joins us right now from san francisco. she has that story deirdre, good morning. >> good morning, becky that's right a number of other people, meg, we'll be talking to have stiez to the tech world, which is accelerating their efforts according to cb insights involvement in health care equity deals by the ten largest u.s. tech companies, that has increase the ten fold in the last five years to nearly $3 billion last year. to name a few of the, ploern 40 deals in on 2017, there was amazon that participated in a financing round. that's a cancer detection start-up apple acquired beddit and alphabet baud senosis. the efforts are much bigger than those deals. alphabet has been expanding. that's the unit entirely dedicated to life snpss. apple, of course has health kit, and amazon is more quietly moving into that space for the moment at least. other big tech names like microsoft and ibm have a long had a presence in the health care industry, and newer names like fitbit and occulus are getting in on the action a few reasons, guys, why big
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tech wants a piece one, this is a $3 trillion industry in the u.s. two, it is right for innovation and disruption. >> the winner is amazon. why it was a big night for the tech giant at the golden globes. jeff bezos was there, too. we'll be right back. take a deeeep breath in... and... exhale...
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. welcome back it was a historic night at the golden globes. julia borestein has a wrap-up of all the big winners in case you went to bed early. julia. >> well, becky, sexual harassment and politics were front and center in seth myers' opening monologue, and it crossed the acceptance speeches, including very empassioned one by oprah winfrey about the need for change, and the room was full of stars in black gowns and men and women wearing times up pins drawing attention to the movement to end inequality in hollywood and beyond it was a big night for fox with seven wins for the studio. four of those were four three billboards outside ebbing, missouri it also won best drama, among other things there was just one of many films and series that were about women
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that were in the spotlight last night. hbo dominated the tv category, as usual, with four awards for big little lies, including best drama. hulu brought in its first two golden globes ever for hand maid's tale, for best tv drama and best actress meanwhile, amazon won two for marvelous mrs. mazel netflix drew just one win for -- in its series "master of none. this despite netflix drawing a record 12 no, ma'am nags going to the awards show last night. another winner was private distributor a24. it had three two were for lady bird, best picture in the comedy or musical category and best actress. barry dillard's iec films was one of the financial backers of "lady bird." he is probably in a pretty good mood this morning. now, the focus on sexual harassment and inequality is sure to continue through awards season through the oscars or the beginning of march nominations for the oscars will be announced on the 23rd
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back over to you >> thank you, julia borestein. stick with hollywood die hard game of thrones fans brad pitt, big money to watch an episode with the show's star, but he didn't quite make the cut. the actor bid as much as $120,000 at a charity auction for a chance to watch an ep episode with amelia clark, who plays denaris on the show. he was outbid. the auction started out at $20,000, but in the end the prize went to a gala goer for $160,000 jim cramer will skbroin us li -- join us live from the new york stock exchange. the futures have been in the red marginally for most of the morning session.
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>> a few upgrades. caterpillar upgraded to jp morgan from neutral to overweight okay let's talk about this. when did you decide it was -- what's the description of that chart, bernstein what did you call it >> when was it good to be neutral? now it's good to be overweight do we care what this guy says? now he is not neutral? now he is overweight >> february was an okay time >> yeah, for all three weeks among the factors cited the tax bill's positive impact on the north american construction business all right. goldman sachs now more positive on united technologies upgrading it to buy from neutral pointing to the geared turbo fan engine which says it will change the narrative for the stock. let's get down to the new york stock exchange jim cramer joins us now. i don't know, jim. he went to an overweight on
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caterpillar. did you see it >> yeah, i mean, what are you going to do. a lot of people missed this because they didn't understand the accelerated depreciation is something that people didn't see. i thought that was important you know, it's amazing that people could be so negative at one point and now so positive after a big move i'm waiting for the government to talk about tariffs and chinese steel and that way maybe cat comes down yeah, this is pretty amazing because, jeez, it's up, like, 100 points, and now is the time to upgrade >> you're a three-point underdog to the falcons >> yeah. i thisnk that's going to make th team jacked when they come out i don't think people really felt -- the team is very angry i did some checking with the team this weekend. the team is not happy. i mean, not happy with the idea that people think that they're that bad because they would be the first seed that's ever been an underdog. i think they come out hard >> did you watch the games
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yesterday? >> yeah. didn't miss a minute >> you didn't? >> no. >> i kept switching back between -- >> i think they match up well against atlanta. >> i kept switching. i had painted one of our rooms, and i was watching that. it was amazing to watch watch t paint goes from shiny to dry as it slowly and it's not nearly -- that was -- >> it was sherwin williams versus ppg that game it was a tie in the first half. >> how about that looked like contentional grounding with cam newton >> absolutely. i didn't think but -- i wanted to see one more. you know, you see on the fingertips that one pass was almost an andy dalton, almost for carolina. >> i felt like giving money to that andy dalton foundation, but geez, i don't know it's good they went that far. >> how about drew brees, 6 feet
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tall and he's just talent. he's just talent. >> the greatest thing the eagles do not face them, the vikings do that is going to be the great game. >> they say it looks like on a lot of passes that he's off but he's not off it's going where the guy can make a quick move against the defense. anyway -- >> he throws them to everybody, i'm surprised he didn't throw one to you literally he threw it to everybody. there wasn't anyone left he didn't throw it to. >> do you have a chance tonight? >> yeah, i think so. >> are you going to watch that >> of course i want to go back to the mundane. what about bank earnings what are you looking for >> i think this is not the quarter to expect them to go crazy but at the same time, because there was no great loan growth in the fourth quarter, i think they can talk a good story about tax reform and how the fed will continue to raise it to 3
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or four and how much it makes for them i like it. let trading come down. is there anybody that thinks after the deutsche bank piece that trading is good i think trading is not going to be that good i hope goldman talks bitcoin trading. >> last but not least, in this earnings season, we're going to hear a lot about the outlook and it's going to incorporate the -- what these companies think they can do under the new tax law so i was expecting this market would have to revert to the mean eventually because it was up 577 points last week how do you revert when you keep theoretically getting these companies saying really positive stuff over the next month? >> i'm glad the futures are not up it gives you an opportunity. when children's place and lululemon tell a better story and nvidia tells a great story over the weekend they all matter. facebook and amazon and netflix copy this morning, that's all up so i think the answer is that
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it's not in the market yet but i know there are a lot of people who feel it has to be in the market i just don't see it that way. >> that's amazing. what's weird is technically i think you've got to get a reversion to the mean because it has to happen but fundamentals take over and if someone says something so bullish the stock is going to go up. i don't know. >> i think that's a great point. i think people do not understand when someone makes a comment, it's not being ignored, it's being done and that's why caterpillar is up and united technology is up it's the opposite. it has real impact. >> we could have another big year, maybe we don't, maybe we have a down year in the average when it's all said and done, nobody ever knows but i don't know about that 7 or 8% that everybody says that we're going to get when it's all said and done maybe it isn't maybe it's 27 or 28. >> tax code really surprised people the depreciation surprised people so whenever there's a surprise in the tax code and no one can
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upgrade fast enough or raise numbers, it's a great opportunity. it really is >> he doesn't care about washington and as a result you're bullish, right? >> i am bullish. >> washington make the playoffs. why -- why would he care about washington cousins, how much is cousins worth? really i think you're right -- there's nothing there. >> focus on the falcons. >> and then all right -- you know what else is coming up, march and march madness, that's not far off and michigan state who's good >> how about this upcoming game on wednesday nova xavier -- i think that's a very big game. xavier is very good, underrated. >> i watched the entire providence game and didn't like the refs but they did a lot of turnovers. we'll see. that's going to be a great game. we should watch it together. >> tell bernstein to stop fretting, i think the vikings look really good.
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>> wednesday, 7:30 i may have to watch -- we'll see you at the top of the hour coming up on squawk alley, don't miss an exclusive interview to nick woodman i wish i would have worn one when i was zip lining and -- and i'll never ever -- shares of go pro falling this morning after an analyst downgrade that interview at 11:00 a.m., my manhood is left -- left in coast at a re costa rica ♪
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oh yeah. no. at cognizant, we're helping today's leading manufacturers make things that think and do automatically. imagine that, a world of new digital products and services all working together for you. can i borrow the car when it's back? get ready, because we're helping leading companies see it- and see it through-with digital. what's critical thinking like? a basketball costs $14. what's team spirit worth? (cheers) what's it worth to talk to your mom? what's the value of a walk in the woods? the value of capital is to create, not just wealth, but things that matter. morgan stanley
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check this out, the final round of the pga tour, first event of 2018. the world's number one golfer dust injohnson on the 12th hole, 424 yard par four. lands in the fairway, couple of nice kicks down the hill and 6 inches from the cup he tapped in. >> on a par four. >> papp tapped in for an eagle,o win that -- >> and absolutely gorgeous watch whales the entire time you're playing, see them out --
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really nice ice land in hawaii is fantastic. >> a couple of years ago you saw usthasen get a double eagle on number two that's where i hit your second shot and it curled around and went all way in -- that's even one better -- that's like getting a hole in one or a par four >> starbucks won the dismissal of a u.s. lawsuit which accused of coffee chain of underfilling lattes and mochas to reduce milk cost the judge found a lack of evidence that starbucks cheets customer or instructed baristas to skim p on ingredients our thanks to rich bernstein for being with us. very quickly, only have a few seconds. would it surprise you -- wouldn't surprise you to see 20% gains. >> we're at the point in the market where people have been out of the bull market going to be the ninth year of
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the bull market. people are finally going to start coming in and that's going to be the big story for 2018 >> that could be the exuberance stage. >> great being with you. richard bernstein advisers, google it. make sure you join us tomorrow "squawk on the street" is next ♪ good monday morning, david faber is back at post nine here's something we haven't seen in a while, futures are relatively weak coming off the best week in the s&p in over a year and big week for investor conferences and bank earnings. europe is slightly positive. 10-year around 2.47.

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